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I’ve heard it discussed to death that you need to control your emotions. Greed and fear cannot enter your trading decisions. So traders spend hundreds of hours and sometime thousands of dollars to research or buy trading plans. These plans are supposed mitigate the input of emotions into trading decisions. Unfortunately for most traders, we’re not robots. We’re not computers that mindlessly buy and sell based on an algorithm. For a discretionary trader, like myself, the act of separating my emotions from my decisions is extremely difficult. On the one hand, I have a system that methodically evaluates potential trades and governs my entries and exits, yet I must incorporate the human brain that analyzes charts, looking for the aesthetically pleasing patterns in a stocks price and volume. When I finally experienced some success it came through a change in focus. In the beginning I was hung up on making money. I got upset on days I had a net loss. I would rethink my strategies. I would second guess every trade I made. To make matters worse I didn't do much in the way of research or analysis after the trading day. When I started to see positive change was when my focus shifted to being excellent. In every trade I researched, every trade I made, and every post postmortem, I attempted to do my best. In addition, I researched new and better ways to research trades and do my analysis. I became very strict with my method and its execution. Afternoons and evening began to be consumed with analysis. It takes enormous conviction to be good at anything. Trading is no exception. Taking the time to learn from your mistakes and actively try to improve is necessary to be successful.

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It's been a quiet for few weeks on the blog. I've been busy with other things beside trading and the market. Typically when I take long breaks, I won't trade until I can give myself enough time to get back into a groove. I trade small or just watch. I spend most of time researching. This week was different. For the past few weeks, I have become increasingly enamored with the Forex market. It intrigues me for several reasons. 1. Price seems to trend well. 2. The market is open 6 days a week, all day long. 3. It is traded without a volume indicator. 4. Razor thin margins/Huge leverage. I am going to conduct a little experiment. For the next few weeks I will no longer trade futures and stocks. My focus will be totally on forex. I am going to attempt to apply my methods to the forex market and see how I fare. Results will be posted here of course. This experiment will start on 4/5. I have to confess I have a few misgivings about forex. I wanted to open a mini account with the minimum, but I would tend to think that will limit my trading opportunities. Small moves against me will easily knock me out of my positions. So, I am in the process of evaluating what time frame will be best served by such a small account. Right now I have two in mind. 1. A Daily time frame. The pro for a daily time frame is the spread becomes less of an issue if I am looking at larger moves. Also, I don't have to make as many decisions, thus increasing my chances of selecting the best trade. The con is that when I get stopped out, I'll really get stopped out. A couple of losses could be catastrophic to a small account. I'll need to set large stops relative to the account size. So, two or three losing trades and I'm done. 2. A 5 minute time frame. The pro is that my losses will be limited to a few pips. The cons is that I will need to make multiple decisions during the day. This wouldn't be such a big issue if I didn't spot the broker three pips when I'm looking for a 10 pip move. It should be interesting. I have to say that I hate the word "pip" so I may end up referring to them here as points. I know that's not the correct verbiage, but "pip" sounds stupid. There, I said it. "Why are you starting with the minimum?" Well, I'm not sure. Forex has become very popular and I tend to think it the easy of access and low cost of entry. I want to test the low cost of entry. Can one successfully trade forex on $300? We'll see.

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Perhaps I spoke to soon. Yesterday I was convinced that the bull were an extinct species. Based on the anemic volume on up days, I thought the market was headed lower. Now, I'm not giving up on that opinion, but you need to be aware of what's going on right now. This is a turning point for the market. I would like to see a follow through day where the market has an up move of 1% or greater, and volume will need to be above the 30 day SMA. The follow through day will need to be in the next day or two. If this doesn't happen then I will be at a loss as to where the market is headed. Today's move was predicated on the inaction of the Fed . It will be interesting to see what the market has in store for us. I am still bearish, but opinion doesn't really matter if we get more days like today. IBD may call it a confirmed rally, but I'm still out for shorts. I'll be trading retracements when possible and posting the setups on this blog.

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Hola Amigos, I'm out of town this week, but eager as always to write a blog post. Unfortunately I've had a crisis in motivation when it comes to this blog. I like the idea of talking about my trades/ideas/picks, but it takes a little more commitment then I originally envisioned. My goal right now is to post once a day. I had a good February, but March has been lacking. I have a library of core content that I have been working on. I will be rolling that out over the next few days. Anyway, lets take a look at the Dow: I know this about the Dow. The lack of volume should be a concern to the bulls. This market is weak. The last two down legs have been large volume sell offs. Even the reversal day was on low volume. The bulls just do not have it. Right now I have no short positions, and I expect that this market will have one more sell off. I'll see you here tomorrow. I'll have some trades and more genius market commentary!

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Kind of a quiet day on the Dow. Volume was light and the index was basically flat. This kind of action is expected. If the market acts like a rubberband, then yesterday was the snap and now we're sitting waiting for a launch in the other direction. I'm not convinced the move upward will be meaningful. I think we have one more quick down leg. I would expect a slow retracement of price upward, and then a break downward. Of course this is all speculation on my part. We could get a major move upward with heavy volume and a restart of a short term uptrend. As always I'll let price and volume be my guide, but it's fun to try to predict. I'm out for the time being. I know alot of money has been made on this short term down trend, but I have my rules. I'm finishing my watchlist for next week. I've also started to look more closely at the forex market. I 've never traded it, but it has always intrigued me. The only thing that bothers me who is taking the other side of your trade. You're not trading on the actual interbank market so your liquidity is limited to who? The forex broker? Other traders? I can't imagine a forex broker could last that long if they have consistently winning customers. And if everyone is a net loser liquidity would dry up without a net influx of new money. Anyway, thoughts on the subject of forex are appreciated. My core trading strategies will always center around stocks, but if you are a real trader then the instrument shouldn't matter. Give me liquidity, give me price movement and a moving average and I can trade.

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